COVIDｰ19の経口治療薬モルヌピラビル（商品名ラゲブリオ）が死亡・入院イベントを抑制しないという論文がでた。
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36566761/

Findings: Between Dec 8, 2021, and April 27, 2022, 26 411 participants were
randomly assigned, 12 821 to molnupiravir plus usual care, 12 962 to usual care
alone, and 628 to other treatment groups (which will be reported separately).
12 529 participants from the molnupiravir plus usual care group, and 12 525
from the usual care group were included in the primary analysis population. The
mean age of the population was 56・6 years (SD 12・6), and 24 290 (94%) of 25 708
participants had had at least three doses of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine.
Hospitalisations or deaths were recorded in 105 (1%) of 12 529 participants in
the molnupiravir plus usual care group versus 98 (1%) of 12 525 in the usual
care group (adjusted odds ratio 1・06 [95% Bayesian credible interval 0・81-1・41];
probability of superiority 0・33). There was no evidence of treatment
interaction between subgroups. Serious adverse events were recorded for 50 (0・4%)
of 12 774 participants in the molnupiravir plus usual care group and for 45 (0・
3%) of 12 934 in the usual care group. None of these events were judged to be


95% Bayesian credible interval 0・81-1・41とあるので
事前分布を一様分布に想定して乱数発生させてオッズ比の分布を出して計算してみる。
https://i.imgur.com/3jU9h7G.png
まあ、似たような値が得られた。
オッズ比が1未満の確率は31.2%になったが、上記論文のprobability of superiority 0・33にほぼ一致。

リスク比で計算しても似たような結果になった。
https://i.imgur.com/RVstdu7.png


朝飯前に95%ベイズ信用区間が計算できて気分が( ・∀・)ｲｲ!!