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理論的根拠があって負の二項分布を選んだのかと思って読んでみたらRであてはまりのよい分布を探したみたい。

Calculation of serial interval and empirical offspring distribution

We calculated the median serial interval as the difference between the symptom onset dates of each infector-infectee pair, excluding asymptomatic cases, and fitted normal, lognormal, gamma and Weibull distributions using the R package “fitdistrplus" and maximum-likelihood methods, excluding eight non-positive data points for the latter three distributions.

We generated the empirical offspring distribution from the observed number of secondary cases per individual infector and similarly fit negative binomial, geometric and Poisson distributions as before.