議論も出尽くしたようなので、まとめに入ろう　（＾＾
まず、時系列
1）（最初はこれだろう。Sergiu Hartの文書から）
http://xorshammer.com/2008/08/23/set-theory-and-weather-prediction/
Written by mkoconnor August 23, 2008
About：Hello, my name is Michael O’Connor. I received my Ph.D. in mathematics from Cornell in August 2008. It was in mathematical logic, an area of mathematics that has a number of interesting nuggets, some of which I hope to explicate (for my sake as much as for anyone else’s). I now work in finance.

2）
http://www.ma.huji.ac.il/hart/puzzle/choice.pdf
Choice Games November 4, 2013 Sergiu Hart http://www.ma.huji.ac.il/hart/
注記：Source unknown. I heard it from Benjy Weiss, who heard it from ..., who heard it from ... . For a related problem, see http://xorshammer.com/2008/08/23/set-theory-and-weather-prediction/
P2：Remark. When the number of boxes is finite Player 1 can guarantee a win with probability 1 in game1, and with probability 9/10 in game2, by choosing the xi independently and uniformly on [0,1] and {0,1,...,9}, respectively.
とあり、コルモゴロフ拡張定理により Choice Games がトリックであることを示唆している

3）
https://mathoverflow.net/questions/151286/probabilities-in-a-riddle-involving-axiom-of-choice
Probabilities in a riddle involving axiom of choice
asked Dec 9 '13 at 16:16 Denis
” I think it is ok, because the only probability measure we need is uniform probability on {0,1,…,N−1}, but other people argue it's not ok, because we would need to define a measure on sequences, and moreover axiom of choice messes everything up.”
注記
https://mathoverflow.net/users/21059/denis
Denis ENS Lyon, Lyon, France http://perso.ens-lyon.fr/denis.kuperberg
ENS：高等師範学校 (パリ) https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E9%AB%98%E7%AD%89%E5%B8%AB%E7%AF%84%E5%AD%A6%E6%A0%A1_(%E3%83%91%E3%83%AA)
つまり、(たぶんENSの)”other people”は、”argue it's not ok”

3）>>62より
https://imgur.com/uMqtRwr
時枝 箱入り無数目（数学セミナー201511月号の記事）の最初
https://imgur.com/YAdz2Mz
時枝 箱入り無数目（数学セミナー201511月号の記事）の後
注記）
”この問題は Peter Winkler氏との茶のみ話がてら耳にした.氏は
原型をノレーマニアあたりから仕入れたらしい”とある
また
”本記事の目的は，確率99% で勝てそうな戦略を供することにある”
（『勝てそうな』としているところにご注目。『勝てる戦略』ではない！ｗ）

つづく